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What's a "Scamdicapper"? It's a term that's used to refer to sports handicapping services that are not in business to serve their fellow sports bettors, but to serve themselves and scam their customers.
They'll claim outrageous results that at first seem to be "the sure thing" or "easy money". You'll be tempted to take their advice and dive in with a 1-900 phone call for a "100 star play-of-the-year", which has been 90% over the last 10 years. You'll make the call and spend your $50 or more and get a decent selection. It may or may not win, but you can be sure that they've got your phone number and they'll begin to call you with their free plays for a few days. They are relentless.
Likely, their free picks are being handed out on both sides of a game to different customers. Let's say the Broncos and the Packers are playing and the Vikings and the Bears are playing. They'll give caller A the Broncos and the Vikings. They'll give caller B the Broncos and the Bears. They'll give caller C the Packers and the Vikings and they'll give caller D the Packers and the Bears. After the Broncos and the Vikings win, caller A is thrilled with the 2-0 performance. Callers B and C are indifferent and probably will get another call next time using the same formula. Caller D went 0-2 and the Scamdicapper won't even bother with them again.
It may repeat again the next week and guess what...someone is going to get 4-0 picks and a few will get 3-1 picks. Maybe it's you. Finally, you'll talk to them to find out how affordable their service is. They'll tell you about all of their scouts and inside information and ask you how much you normally bet on a game. Next, they'll tell you how much more money you could make if you bet significantly more and bought their picks, which come in consistently at 70-80%. They'll price their "package" based on what they think you'll pay, since you've already told them how much you normally bet. You'll usually hear them tell you how you can't lose buying their service for $500 this month and you've got to wire them some money today because tonight is a "lock".
Did I forget to mention that after a couple of days with their service they'll tell you about your games that you bought, but also let you know about this "other guy" that they work with and "I shouldn't be doing this, but..." they'll give you a free pick or two for their premium service which is just a few hundred bucks a month more. Next thing you know, you're losing your bets and you've paid a small fortune for their "advice".
Don't bite. Be educated. There are scamdicappers everywhere and there are reputable sports handicapping services that are well worth it. The web is littered with "free pick" sites as well as outrageously priced services. Even if you never even consider becoming a Sports Advantage member, let us help you weed through the marketing hype and let you know what professional sports handicapping really is all about.
That depends. How much time do you have to really study the games? Do you bet for fun or do you really want to turn a profit? What resources do you subscribe to in order to have up-to-date information?
If you're successful on your own and take the time to read through the game summaries, injury reports, power ratings from various services, and stay on top of weekly game developments, then you don't need a service. Don't spend your money unless you want a strong second opinion from a reputable service. We recommend that if your honest results are putting money in your pocket and you are more than "lucky" because you do your homework diligently, then it's not necessary.
However, if you aren't looking at all the games, you might be missing an angle on a game that gives you a strong advantage. If you think watching Sports Center every night makes you a knowledgeable handicapper, you're probably losing money. If you're just betting your "hunch" or a team that's "due" and disregarding statistics and facts about an upcoming game, you should in the very least consider a reputable service to supplement your picks or give you an edge on other games. But BE CAREFUL.
If you choose to use a service, don't just hop on the web and pick the first service that you come across because you need to get your action in right away. Also, be careful of sites that offer only free picks. Remember that you get what you pay for and anybody can put up a website. There are good "sophisticated" handicappers out there who are excellent at their hobby and post decent free picks out there. But the reason why they market free picks is because it is a hobby to many of them. It's easy for them to slam the other sites out there and tell you that you shouldn't pay for picks. Again, we ask "Are they showing you their results?"
So why does MiddleMan Sports, or any other honest service, charge for their selections? Because we do it for a living. We spend our revenues on newsletters, research subscriptions, and computer analysis. And because we offer a valuable product.
Why do dishonest scamdicappers charge for their selections? Because they do it for a living as well. Why are many of them so expensive? Because they spend an outrageous amount on marketing. And sometimes it can be expensive to close down shop and re-open with a new name to market to a new class of victims.
So what
should you do? First, find a service that you can trust. That means that
they either post their results daily or are monitored by one of the
services that keep handicappers honest. But be careful here too. There are
"monitoring" services that - for an extra fee - will let the handicappers
turn in their selections the next day.
You need to look for consistency in their result reporting. Obviously, MiddleMan Sports can't fudge our results because our members see our picks today and those same picks are shown in
results
the next day. If we omitted some of our losers or added a winner that we
didn't play, our members would let us know! There are several
reputable services such as MiddleMan Sports who honestly show their
selections and are accountable for their results - both the good and the
bad.
This is the biggest myth in all of sports handicapping. Someone who gets involved with sports betting may meet with moderate success - a slight profit. But they see these ads touting 75% winners every year or their "Big Ten Lock-of-the-Year" that can't miss. Let's take a look at realistic percentages so that you can take a closer look at what may or may not be real.
Let's say you have a sample of 100 games. In order to pick 70% winners, you'd go 70-30. A $100 bettor would have an outstanding return of $3700 on games with a -110 line. Is it realistic? Well, let's take a closer look.
It's widely held that about 50% of all games played will be decided against the spread by fluke. Disagree? How many games have you watched where your over bet fell just short because of a great catch at the wall on a sure home run? Or the comfortable 10-point favorite loses a 14-point lead late in the game because the second-string mop-up quarterback throws an ill-advised pick that is run back for a touchdown? Or the star guard for the favored hoops team goes down with a sprained ankle in the first quarter? All the handicapping in the world will never be a crystal ball and these situations just happen. Sometimes they end up helping you in your bet and sometimes they end up hurting you. It sure does seem like they hurt more often than they help!
So let's say that of the 100 games in our sample, 50 games are decided by fluke and you win half and lose half. That means that you are 25-25 after 50 games. Now what does it take to get to 70% total? IT TAKES ANOTHER 45 WINNERS OF THE REMAINING 50 GAMES. Are you kidding me? You would have to go 45-5 in the other games. Wow. Do you honestly think that Fast Eddie's Sports Locks can do that?
Continuing with our example, what would it take to go 60%? It would still take a stiff 35-15 in the other 50 games. Tough, but possible. If you find it over a season and it's honest, join the service. The tough part is finding out whether it's honest or not. More realistic percentages for professional handicappers is 55-57% over a long sample, such as 100 games. A $100 bettor would earn $970 at a 57% record of 57-43 on games with a -110 line. Very satisfying.
Now you can understand why confident handicappers that play with their own money have to lay bets of a nickel ($500), a dime ($1000), or more per game in order to make it worth their while over a football season. If they're playing an average of 15 college and pro football games per full week, they're likely only placing around 200 football plays per year. And they are very satisfied with 56%-58%.
Well, it's all about buyer beware. There are
Scamdicappers out there and there are reputable services available as well. The key is to be educated and question what you see or hear. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
As we
all know, there are such things as streaks - both hot and cold. You'll
find ours in our results. It's quite possible to go 85% over three or four
days or even have a 75% week. It's also possible to have a goose egg for a
day followed by a 1-4 day. But stick with a service for a little while and
ride out hot and cold streaks. If they're helping to make you money, stay
with it. If they're not, move on.
This is an excellent question. Some are much more expensive than others. If it costs a lot more are you getting that much better information? The answer is a resounding NO. Documented professionals are all within a few percentage points of each other in the long run. Some are absolutely better than others on a consistent basis, but not always to the same significant difference in the price that is charged.
Keep in mind that some services charge more because they offer more, such as newsletters with analysis, in-depth statistics and power ratings to help assist you in your own handicapping. Others, such as MiddleMan Sports, subscribe to many of these newsletters and consider their handicapping selections.
If you have the time and are absolutely serious about doing your own in-depth analysis and handicapping, you too should subscribe to some of these services. The Gold Sheet is an excellent example of a service that offers an outstanding weekly publication as well as separate handicapping services that can be purchased. However, if you've ever seen a weekly Gold Sheet, you know that it is serious information that takes a lot of time to read and digest.
The fact is that most bettors don't have the time or won't take the time to adequately study the games to gain the edge. So it is worth it to use a reputable and affordable handicapping service to supplement your own picks. Prices vary, but if you're playing $50-$100 per bet, you should feel very comfortable in spending $200 per month for professional selections. If you're paying more or less and you're happy with the results you're getting, don't worry about it. It's all about gaining an edge and increasing your winnings.
The bottom line is BE CAREFUL and feel comfortable with the service you're buying. You don't want your name and number passed around the boiler rooms of the
scamdicapper circles. We pride ourselves on keeping our members anonymous - we'll never sell your email or phone number to anyone else. We'll only use your email to keep you informed of specials, late plays, and to update your password.
Give us a try and we think you'll be happy. We've learned the lessons for you. Take some sound advice and join a service that prides itself on performance, value, and honesty.
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