Great...But Where's The 70% Win Percentage?
This is the biggest myth in all of sports handicapping. Someone who gets involved with sports betting may meet with moderate success - a slight profit. But they see these ads touting 75% winners every year or their "Big Ten Lock-of-the-Year" that can't miss. Let's take a look at realistic percentages so that you can take a closer look at what may or may not be real.
Let's say you have a sample of 100 games. In order to pick 70% winners, you'd go 70-30. A $100 bettor would have an outstanding return of $3700 on games with a -110 line. Is it realistic? Well, let's take a closer look.
It's widely held that about 50% of all games played will be decided against the spread by fluke. Disagree? How many games have you watched where your over bet fell just short because of a great catch at the wall on a sure home run? Or the comfortable 10-point favorite loses a 14-point lead late in the game because the second-string mop-up quarterback throws an ill-advised pick that is run back for a touchdown? Or the star guard for the favored hoops team goes down with a sprained ankle in the first quarter? All the handicapping in the world will never be a crystal ball and these situations just happen. Sometimes they end up helping you in your bet and sometimes they end up hurting you. It sure does seem like they hurt more often than they help!
So let's say that of the 100 games in our sample, 50 games are decided by fluke and you win half and lose half. That means that you are 25-25 after 50 games. Now what does it take to get to 70% total? IT TAKES ANOTHER 45 WINNERS OF THE REMAINING 50 GAMES. Are you kidding me? You would have to go 45-5 in the other games. Wow. Do you honestly think that Fast Eddie's Sports Locks can do that?
The Realistic 57% Goal
Continuing with our example, what would it take to go 60%? It would still take a stiff 35-15 in the other 50 games. Tough, but possible. If you find it over a season and it's honest, join the service. The tough part is finding out whether it's honest or not. More realistic percentages for professional handicappers is 55-57% over a long sample, such as 100 games. A $100 bettor would earn $970 at a 57% record of 57-43 on games with a -110 line. Very satisfying.
Now you can understand why confident handicappers that play with their own money have to lay bets of a nickel ($500), a dime ($1000), or more per game in order to make it worth their while over a football season. If they're playing an average of 15 college and pro football games per full week, they're likely only placing around 200 football plays per year. And they are very satisfied with 56%-58%.
What Does It All Mean??
Well, it's all about buyer beware. There are Scamdicappers out there and there are reputable services available as well. The key is to be educated and question what you see or hear. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
As we all know, there are such things as streaks - both hot and cold. You'll find ours in our results. It's quite possible to go 85% over three or four days or even have a 75% week. It's also possible to have a goose egg for a day followed by a 1-4 day. But stick with a service for a little while and ride out hot and cold streaks. If they're helping to make you money, stay with it. If they're not, move on.
So What Is A Good Service Worth?
This is an excellent question. Some are much more expensive than others. If it costs a lot more are you getting that much better information? The answer is a resounding NO. Documented professionals are all within a few percentage points of each other in the long run. Some are absolutely better than others on a consistent basis, but not always to the same significant difference in the price that is charged.
Keep in mind that some services charge more because they offer more, such as newsletters with analysis, in-depth statistics and power ratings to help assist you in your own handicapping. Others, such as MiddleMan Sports, subscribe to many of these newsletters and consider their handicapping selections.
If you have the time and are absolutely serious about doing your own in-depth analysis and handicapping, you too should subscribe to some of these services. The Gold Sheet is an excellent example of a service that offers an outstanding weekly publication as well as separate handicapping services that can be purchased. However, if you've ever seen a weekly Gold Sheet, you know that it is serious information that takes a lot of time to read and digest.
The fact is that most bettors don't have the time or won't take the time to adequately study the games to gain the edge. So it is worth it to use a reputable and affordable handicapping service to supplement your own picks. Prices vary, but if you're playing $50-$100 per bet, you should feel very comfortable in spending $200 per month for professional selections. If you're paying more or less and you're happy with the results you're getting, don't worry about it. It's all about gaining an edge and increasing your winnings.
The bottom line is BE CAREFUL and feel comfortable with the service you're buying. You don't want your name and number passed around the boiler rooms of the scamdicapper circles. We pride ourselves on keeping our members anonymous - we'll never sell your email or phone number to anyone else. We'll only use your email to keep you informed of specials, late plays, and to update your password.
Give us a try and we think you'll be happy. We've learned the lessons for you. Take some sound advice and join a service that prides itself on performance, value, and honesty.
